Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER â€¢ NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMISTÂ

â€œThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman'sÂ Thinking, Fast and Slow.â€â€”Jason Zweig,Â TheÂ Wall Street Journal
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Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weekâ€™s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even expertsâ€™ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
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In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleâ€”including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerâ€”who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyâ€™ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyâ€™ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
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In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladenâ€™s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnâ€™t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futureâ€”whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeâ€”and is destined to become a modern classic.
Country USA
Binding Kindle Edition
EISBN 9780804136709
Format Kindle eBook
Label Crown
Manufacturer Crown
NumberOfPages 328
PublicationDate 2015-09-29
Publisher Crown
ReleaseDate 2015-09-29
Studio Crown

Country	USA
Binding	Kindle Edition
EISBN	9780804136709
Format	Kindle eBook
Label	Crown
Manufacturer	Crown
NumberOfPages	328
PublicationDate	2015-09-29
Publisher	Crown
ReleaseDate	2015-09-29
Studio	Crown

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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