What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book

Condition - Very Good
The item shows wear from consistent use, but it remains in good condition and functions properly. Item may arrive with damaged packaging or be repackaged. It may be marked, have identifying markings on it, or have minor cosmetic damage. It may also be missing some parts/accessories or bundled items.

What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011)

Experts must love making predictions. They keep right on predicting, even though by any reasonable standard, they're terrible at it.

Many of them, though intelligent and well-informed, nonetheless have difficulty even beating a random guess about future eventsâ€”or, if you will, beating the proverbial dart-throwing chimp. This applies to many realms of human activity, but above all to politics, and the subject of expert political judgment forms this month's theme at Cato Unbound.

Once we grasp that the experts aren't so reliable at predicting the future, a question arises immediately: How can we do better? Some events will always be unpredictable, of course, but this month's lead authors, Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock, suggest a few ways that the experts might still be able to improve.

To discuss with them, we've invited economist and futurologist Robin Hanson of George Mason University, Professor of Finance and Cato Adjunct Scholar John H. Cochrane, and political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Each will offer a commentary on Gardner and Tetlockâ€™s essay, followed by a discussion among the panelists lasting through the end of the month.

Country	USA
Binding	Kindle Edition
Format	Kindle eBook
IsAdultProduct
Label	Cato Institute
Manufacturer	Cato Institute
NumberOfPages	47
PublicationDate	2011-07-11
Publisher	Cato Institute
ReleaseDate	2011-07-11
Studio	Cato Institute

What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011)

You might also like...